By the time we go green on Sunday, we could be looking at one of the greatest turnarounds in a single season MotoGP has ever seen. 161 days will have passed between Marc Marquez (Ducati Lenovo Team) being 102 points behind the Championship lead to the #93 facing a coronation under the lights of Lusail in Qatar to retain his title and make it a historic eighth in MotoGP. A remarkable season has just three GPs left to go but if results go his way on Saturday, the reigning World Champion will be exactly that again going into 2027.
PERMUTATIONS: Marc Marquez’s maths for title #8
The permutations are simple: across the course of the weekend, outscore chief title rival Jorge Martin (Aprilia Racing) by 30 points and the #89’s teammate Marco Bezzecchi by 8. It would mean that results do indeed have to go Marquez’s way; if he doesn’t take at least P5 on Saturday for his end of the bargain, then Sunday’s out of the question. With Martin’s participation subject to a Thursday medical check after his sat out the points scoring ops at the Malaysian GP, it may well be Bezzecchi who attempts to delay the #93’s title celebrations. Marquez is a double winner at Lusail in 2014 and 2025 and in terms of match points, five of his seven title have been clinched at the first possible opportunity – will it be six from eight when the curtain comes down on Sunday?
NOT OVER YET: the Aprilia dynamic
As for Bezzecchi and Martin, both need to be on their A-game to halt the #93. 30 points may sound a lot to outscore by but with the 2024 World Champion’s injury struggles and Bezzecchi needing a top five in the Sprint to guarantee himself remaining in contention going to Saturday, it’s an uphill task. Perhaps their fellow Aprilias can have a say? Ai Ogura (SuperFile Trackhouse MotoGP Team) was fast for fourth last time out, and after racing Bezzecchi at full pelt, whilst teammate Raul Fernandez is subject to a medical check for his broken fingers.
CHASING PACK: Acosta and a host of Lusail winners
Pedro Acosta (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) is fourth overall and whilst being in mathematical contention, needs to outscore Marquez himself by 31 points. From P4 to P6, 30 points cover Acosta, Ogura and Fabio Di Giannantonio (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team), winner of the 2023 Grand Prix of Qatar. 2024 winner Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) hopes to repeat his podium success of 2025.
Enea Bastianini (Red Bull KTM Tech3) completes the top ten in the standings and after a top five in Malaysia, the 2022 Qatar GP victor returns to the site of his first MotoGP win. The Italian got ahead of Fermin Aldeguer (BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP) in the standings but the #54 is heading to Lusail and, pending a Thursday medical check, will return to duty.
SURPRISES: Viñales and Binder aim high
KTM’s charge on the road was good at Lusail in 2025 with Maverick Viñales taking P2 until a tyre pressure penalty. An encouraging weekend nonetheless, something that he and Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) will be keen to replicate in 2026, the latter a double podium finisher in Qatar. Luca Marini’s (Honda HRC Castrol) P7 was his best finish since Hungary and is seeking more of the same this weekend whereas teammate Joan Mir has been a Qatar GP podium contender in previous years, but he continues to face some fitness struggles so remains a question mark. Fellow Honda rider Diogo Moreira (Pro Honda LCR) can secure Rookie of the Year honours if he scores 15 points; teammate Johann Zarco (Castrol Honda LCR) was a mega P4 at Lusail in 2025 – can he repeat it in 2026? A double podium finisher and long-time GP leader last year, Franco Morbidelli (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) shouldn’t be ruled out of a strong final Qatar GP.
Last but not least, although Aldeguer is back, Iker Lecuona continues on super-sub duty, this time for Alex Marquez who underwent shoulder surgery after Sepang and aims to be back for Portimao with BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP. Yamaha have withdrawn from the Qatar GP, meaning Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP and Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP will not be present.
Match point one, Round 20: the Grand Prix of Qatar could bring the biggest moment of the season so far – tune in to see if Marquez makes more history or Aprilia – or Acosta – can put pause on the celebrations.
